Each month, Michael Hankerson—Designated Broker for the
Luxury Division, Mortgage Broker with First Link Mortgage (NMLS #2664119), and
team lead for the Hankerson Team—tracks and publishes the Metro Phoenix
Housing Update, a report featuring 15 key national economic and local
housing indicators.
The report captures a snapshot of current market conditions
on the first of each month by tracking six key indicators: days on market,
active listings, coming soon listings, inventory, homes under contract, and the
supply/demand ratio. Then, the report
analyzes the month being reported by adding five national economic indicators
and four Metro Phoenix housing statistics related to sales. These figures are
then compared to the previous month and the same month one year prior to
identify trends and market shifts. By
analyzing these trends, we gain a clear view of where the market stands
today—and where it may be headed.
Clients and followers use this data to make more informed
decisions about buying, selling, or investing in Metro Phoenix residential real
estate. A standout example is the May 2022 report, which warned that housing
inventory had more than doubled in just 60 days. Based on that insight, I
advised an investor to delay a purchase and encouraged a seller to list in May
instead of waiting until July. These strategic decisions helped avoid
losses—and in some cases, saved tens of thousands, if not over $100,000.
Meanwhile, iBuyers who continued paying full price into the
summer suffered major losses by fall, as inventory quadrupled and the average
sale price dropped nearly $80,000.
Here are the 15 Key Indicators—and why they matter to
real estate agents, buyers, sellers, and investors in the Metro Phoenix housing
market:
Mortgage30US (30-year fixed mortgage rate)
Why it matters: This directly impacts buyer affordability and monthly
payments. Higher rates can reduce demand, slow sales, and lower prices.
Investors calculate cash flow with this rate, and agents use it to gauge
urgency.
DGS10 (10-year Treasury yield)
Why it matters: A benchmark for mortgage rates. Rising yields signal
future rate hikes, potentially slowing buyer demand. It’s a leading indicator
for market shifts.
DGS2 (2-year Treasury yield)
Why it matters: Reflects short-term economic sentiment. If the 2-year
yield exceeds the 10-year (an inversion), it can signal a potential
recession—impacting buyer caution, investor strategies, and seller pricing.
DJIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average)
Why it matters: A broad measure of economic health. Luxury buyers and
investors often react to stock market performance. Strong markets fuel
confidence; downturns cool high-end sales.
Bitcoin
Why it matters: In high-net-worth circles, Bitcoin serves as a liquidity
source. When prices surge, cash home purchases often rise—especially in the
luxury sector.
SFD-# Homes Sold (Single Family Detached)
Why it matters: A measure of buyer activity and market health. Lower
sales can indicate waning demand or affordability issues. Helps agents and
sellers track market competitiveness.
SFD-Sale Price
Why it matters: Shows price trends. Buyers assess market timing, sellers
set listing strategies, and investors monitor appreciation or decline.
SFD-Sold Volume
Why it matters: Represents the total dollar value of homes sold. A drop
might reflect fewer high-end sales or an overall market slowdown.
SFD-Price/Ft
Why it matters: Levels the field across home sizes. Buyers evaluate
value, sellers price strategically, and investors run projections for flips or
rentals.
SFD-DOM (Active) – Days on Market
Why it matters: Indicates how long listings sit unsold. Rising DOM can
mean declining demand or unrealistic pricing—helpful for setting expectations
and negotiation strategies.
SFD-Active Listings
Why it matters: A snapshot of available homes. An increase can suggest a
shift to a buyer’s market, prompting sellers to adjust pricing or incentives.
SFD-Coming Soon
Why it matters: Offers insight into future supply. Buyers and agents can
act early. Sellers can time their listings better, and investors may spot early
opportunities.
SFD-Inventory (Months of Supply)
Why it matters: Shows how long it would take to sell all active listings
at the current pace. Under 3 months = seller’s market. Over 6 = buyer’s market.
Vital for timing and strategy.
SFD-Contracts
Why it matters: Reflects how many homes are going under contract in real
time. Often a leading indicator before closed sales show the trend. Helps
forecast shifts in demand.
Supply / Demand Ratio
Why it matters: This metric defines the market dynamic. When supply
exceeds demand, buyers gain leverage. When demand exceeds supply, sellers hold
the advantage. Critical for all real estate decisions.
Questions?
Booka Call with Michael Hankerson
